Hold onto your hats, because the Bitcoin market is at a crossroads, and the path ahead could be wilder than you think. PlanB, the mastermind behind the stock-to-flow model, has laid out four jaw-dropping scenarios for Bitcoin's bear market, each more intriguing than the last. But here's where it gets controversial: could Bitcoin's lows already be behind us, or are we in for a deeper plunge? Let’s dive in and explore these possibilities, because this is the part most people miss—the nuances that could shape the future of the world’s most talked-about cryptocurrency.
In a recent post on X and a follow-up video dated February 4, PlanB framed the debate around Bitcoin’s historical behavior during bear markets. He highlighted how the cryptocurrency typically finds its bottom relative to long-term trend metrics. Interestingly, he also argued that the previous rally’s lack of momentum might result in a milder correction this time around. To put things in perspective, Bitcoin closed January at $78,000, marking a 40% drop from its all-time high of $126,000. PlanB’s chart showed the 200-week moving average at $58,000 and the realized price at $55,000. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) ended January at 49—a level PlanB considers a regime shift.
But what does an RSI of 49 really mean? PlanB explains, ‘RSI is an index between 0 and 100. Anything above 50 signals an uptrend, while anything below 50 indicates a downtrend. At 49, we’re firmly in bear market territory, similar to what we saw in 2014–15, 2018–19, and 2022–23.’* This sets the stage for four distinct scenarios that could play out in the coming months.
Scenario 1: The Nightmare Drop
The first scenario is the one no trader wants to hear—a historic 80% crash from the all-time high. With Bitcoin peaking at $126,000, this would mean a plunge to around $25,000. PlanB admits this would ‘look really odd’ on the charts, but it’s a possibility that lingers in the minds of many investors. Is this the worst-case scenario, or is the market overreacting? Let us know what you think in the comments.
Scenario 2: The Conventional Correction
The second scenario is more in line with historical patterns. Here, Bitcoin would bottom out around the 200-week moving average and realized price, landing somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000. PlanB points to previous cycles, like 2022 and 2015, where the RSI trough aligned with these long-term anchors. But is history doomed to repeat itself, or is this time truly different?
Scenario 3: The Shallow Retrace
The third scenario is even milder: Bitcoin could retrace just above the previous cycle’s all-time high, hovering around $69,000–$70,000. PlanB’s rationale? The last bull phase lacked the explosive momentum seen in previous cycles, which could limit the depth of the current bear market. Could this be the most likely outcome, or are we underestimating the market’s volatility?
Scenario 4: The Bottom Is In
The fourth scenario is every trader’s dream: the market has already hit its low. PlanB suggested that the $72,900 level seen recently could be the bottom. However, with Bitcoin dropping to $70,140 shortly after, this scenario seems less likely—at least for now. But what if PlanB is onto something? Could the market surprise us with an early turnaround?
PlanB also revisited his stock-to-flow model, emphasizing that it still projects a Bitcoin value of $500,000 based on scarcity. However, he clarified that the model isn’t designed to predict turning points but rather to reflect long-term trends. Is the stock-to-flow model still relevant, or has its time passed?
Finally, PlanB hinted at a potential shift in Bitcoin’s cycle template. Historically, the peak occurs in the first or second year after a halving, but this didn’t happen after the 2024 halving. This leaves room for an upside phase later in the cycle, though his near-term framework focuses on whether Bitcoin will gravitate toward the realized price and 200-week average, hold the previous all-time high zone, or validate a higher low in the low-$70,000s.
So, what’s your take? Which scenario do you think will play out, and why? Share your thoughts below—let’s spark a debate!
